Quote from an insider from Russian secret service, I will publish this without any changes or censorship because this is hell:
"Right off the bat, I'll say it honestly. I've gotten barely any sleep the past few days, I'm at work all the time, it's like there's fog in my brain. The tiredness sometimes makes me feel like none of this is real.
Honestly said, Pandora's box is open. By summer a nightmare that will reach the whole world will begin. World hunger is unavoidable (Russia and Ukraine were key providers of grain around the globe, this year there will be fewer harvests, and logistics issues will inflate the catastrophe to its peak). I can't tell you what the higher ups were thinking when they decided to go through with this operation, but now all hounds are being released on us (the service). We're being chastised for our analysis being wrong, this is right up my alley and therefore I can judge that this isn't the case.
Lately we've been pressured by upper management to hurry our reports, and concerning that topic. all these political consultants, politicians and the like are all sources of influence. All they do is cause chaos, intensely.
The most important thing is, no one knew that the war would be like this. This was hidden from everyone.
Here's an example for you: you're asked to calculate the chances of maintaining the law in differing circumstances, including attacking prisons with meteorites. You inquire about the meteorites, you're told that this is simply a precaution, none of this will actually happen. You understand that your report will simply be for show, but you're forced to write it in a tone that implies victory so as to not raise any questions such as "Why do you have so many issues with this? Could you have done a poor job?". Well this report is being written and it states that in the event of a meteor strike we have all the necessary capabilities to deal with the consequences, we're good boys, no issues here! You concentrate on tasks that are realistic, after all we're lacking strength already. And later out of nowhere they really do drop a meteor and wait for everything to be according to your analysis, which you wrote to pass the time.
It's precisely because of this that everything is such a clusterfuck, I don't even want to choose a different word to describe this. We have no defence against sanctions for these reasons, well it's likely that Nabiullina will have accusations of negligence tacked on (or more likely, the pencil pushers in her team), but what are they guilty of? No one knew that the war would be like this, and therefore no one was preparing for such sanctions. This is the other side of secrecy, who can prepare for that which he was never aware of?
Kadyrov's lost his mind. Almost started another conflict with us. It's possible that the Ukrainians spread misinformation that we gave away the locations of Kadyrov's forces in the first few days. They got pounded while marching in the most terrifying ways, they hadn't even started fighting and they already got a certain place torn apart. Then it begins, "the FSB leaked info to the Ukrainians!". I don't possess such information, and say that it's 1% to 2% likely that this is true (I don't want to completely eliminate the chance).
The Blitzkrieg failed. It's entirely impossible to complete the job at this point. If in the first 3 days Zelensky and some holders of power were captured, all key buildings in Kiev were taken, and the order to surrender was given, then yes. Resistance would be minimal. Theoretically. But what next? Even under such ideal circumstances there stands an unsolvable problem: negotiate with who? If we topple Zelensky, great, who do we sign a deal with? If with Zelensky then after we topple him then the papers he signs are worthless. The OPFL refused to cooperate, Medvedchuk, the coward, fled. There's a second leader, Boyko, but he refuses to work with us, even his own people won't have him. We wanted to return Tsyarov, but even our own Pro Russians are against us. Return Yanukovich? How? If we're saying an occupation is impossible then any power we put in place will get torn apart 10 minutes after we leave. An occupation? Where would we get the manpower? Commandants, military police, counter-recon, security. Even under minimal resistance from the locals we'd need 500K or more people. That's not even considering the logistics of it. There exists a rule, that if you try to substitute quality with quantity you only ruin everything. And this, I repeat, is in an ideal situation which doesn't exist
What about now? We can't announce mobilisation due to two reasons:
1. Mass mobilisation will interrupt the situation in the country: politically, economically and socially.
2. Our logistics are strained as they are.
We introduce a large contingent, and what do we get? Ukraine is a huge country by territory. Even now the level of hatred levelled at us is immense. Our roads simply won't handle the throughput of such caravans. Organisationally nothing will work, everything is in chaos.
These two reasons jump out at us, even though even one of these is enough to ruin everything.
Regarding losses: I don't know how many there are. No one knows. The first two days there was some sense of control, now nobody knows what's happening. We can lose comms with large detachments. They can be found, or they can be torn apart by attacks. Even commanders don't know how many of their soldiers are running around, how many died, how many are prisoners. The amount dead is surely in the thousands, maybe 10K, maybe 5, or maybe even 2. Even in HQ no one knows for sure. But it is likely closer to 10K. We're not even counting the losses from the Luhansk and Donetsk Republics, that's its own count.
Today even if we kill Zelensky, take him prisoner, nothing will change at this point. Ukraine matches Chechnya in their hatred for us. Now even those who were loyal to us are standing against us. Because this was planned at the top, because we were told that there was no chance of this, not as long as we're not invaded. They figured that they must create the maximal real threat, to negotiate on peaceful terms. Initially we planned on starting protests in Ukraine against Zelensky. Us intruding wasn't a consideration.
In the future civilian losses will rise to geometric proportions, and resistance will only increase. We've tried entering cities with infantry, out of 20 groups of paratroopers only one had any significant success. Remember the storming of Mosul, it's a rule all nations have experienced, nothing is new here.
Hold the cities under siege? The experience of European conflicts in the past decades (Serbia was a major source of experience) teaches us that cities can last years under siege, and even function. Humanitarian convoys from Europe are simply a matter of time.
Our conditional deadline is until July. Conditional because by July we'll have no economy to speak of, nothing will be left. Roughly next week a tilt will begin to either side, simply because a situation can't remain close for so long. There is no analysis, chaos can't be predicted, no one can say anything for certain. We're acting according to intuition, even by emotions, but this isn't a game of poker. Stakes will rise in the hopes that some outcome will peek through. The trouble is we too could gamble it all and lose everything.
In the big picture, the country has no choice. There's simply no chance of a victory, while the chances of defeat are but a certainty, we're fucked. We said there was a 100% chance at the start of the last century when we chose to kick puny Japan and receive a quick victory, only to then find out that, oh no! Trouble with the army. Then began the war to the victorious end! (TL note: Reference to a Russian foreign minister who said Russia wouldn't pull out of WWI), then the Bolsheviks began being sent for "reeducation" into the army, they were a minority after all, uninteresting in their masses. Then the barely known Bolsheviks picked up their anti war slogans and so it began.
As a positive, we've done all to torpedo even the mention of sending dissidents to the front lines. Send prisoners and the menaces to society (so they don't muddy the waters inside the nation) and all you will accomplish is reducing army morale. Meanwhile the enemy is motivated, monstrously motivated. They know how to wage war, they have support. All we will do is set a world record for human casualties.
What we fear the most: The higher ups operate on the rule of covering old problems with new problems. For many of these reasons Donbass was started in 2014, we needed a way to distract the West from the topic of the Russian Spring in Crimea. Because of this, Donbass was meant to draw all attention and become the main topic of the incursion. But there began even bigger problems. Then they decided to push Erdogan's "Southern stream" into 4 directions and thus began Syria, and this was after Soleimani made false claims to complete his own tasks. In summary, we couldn't close the question with Crimea, Donbass has its own issues, the stream of refugees in Syria squeezed only to 2 tubes and Syria has caused another headache (if we leave, Asad will be toppled and we'll look like complete idiots, but sitting around is also useless and difficult).
I don't know who invented the "Ukrainian blitzkrieg". If we were given real information then we at the very least would indicate that the plan initially is questionable, that much of it needs to be rechecked. A lot of it. Now we've crawled neck deep into shit, and no one knows what to do. "Denazification" and "Demilitarisation" aren't analytical categories, because they have no rigid parameters according to which we can determine the chance of success an objective has.
Now all that remains is for us to wait for some fucking batshit crazy advisor who'll convince the top to start a conflict with Europe to lower some sanctions. Either they lower them, or it's war. If they refuse? Then I can't rule out the possibility we'll be dragged into a true international conflict like Hitler in 1939. Our Zs will be the world's new swastika.
Does the possibility of a localised nuclear strike exist? Yes. Not in the interests of the military (it would accomplish nothing, it's a weapon to defeat defences) but in order to spook others. Now we begin sowing the soil to unleash everything on Ukraine. Naryshkin with his SVR now dig the soil to prove that Ukraine has nuclear capabilities they've been developing in secret. For fuck's sake they've started to prattle on about what we've already studied and taken apart to its bones. We can't draw some evidence on our knees, and statements about specialists in Ukraine and stockpiles of depleted Uranium 238 are meaningless. The cycle involved in the creation of nuclear weapons in one where you can't do anything in secret. Even a "dirty" bomb (TL note: bomb that uses conventional explosives to scatter radioactive material) can't be made without discovery. All the talk of their old nuclear plants having the weapons grade plutonium to make nukes (stations such as the REB-1000 produce minimal quantities as a "side effect" of the reaction) well the Americans introduced such strict regulations with the IAEA (TL note: International Atomic Energy Agency) that even humouring the idea is absurd.
Do you know what will begin in a week? Maybe even two. We'll be slammed so hard that we'll feel nostalgic about the hungry 90s. While the markets are being closed, Nabiullina seems to be taking the right steps, but it's like plugging holes in your ship with your fingers. Eventually the water will break through, and even harder than before. Not in 3, nor 5, nor 10 days will any of this be solved at this point.
Kadyrov stomps his hooves for a reason, they're having their own adventures. He's created an image of being the most influential and unbeatable, if he loses just once his own people will tear him apart. He will no longer be the clan conqueror.
Let's go further. Syria. "The lads will hold out, once all of this in Ukraine ends we'll strengthen our position in Syria once again. And now at any moment there they'll be able to wait for the Russian contingent to run out of supplies, and then the true heat will begin. Turkey blockades the straits. Flying supplies there by plane is like heating your oven by burning money.
Notice how this is all happening simultaneously, we can't even tie up one loose end. Our position is the same as Germany in 43-44. Back at the start. Sometimes I lose myself in all this tiredness, sometimes it feels like this is all a bad dream, that all is like it was before,
With prisons, as a side note, it will be even worse. We'll have to start tightening laws to the breaking point. To say it plainly, this remains our only chance of holding on to control of the situation. We've already entered the state of total mobilisation of police. But we can't stay in this state for long, our sentences are vague enough as it is, and will only continue to get worse. Mobilisation always causes issues with organisation. Imagine, you can sprint 100m with no issues, but to go to a marathon and sprint at full speed is a poor idea. Well we've began sprinting with this Ukrainian question as if it was a 100m, but accidentally registered for a marathon over rough terrain.
And that's me being brief.
All the cynicism I'll add is that I don't believe Putin will push the red button in order to destroy the world.
Firstly, it's not one person who makes the decision, at least one person will refuse. And there's many people there, there isn't some "single red button".
Secondly, there are some doubts that all is functioning properly. Experience shows that the more transparency and control a project has, the easier it is to see its flaws. And that where not all is understood, who controls what, well there's always issues. I'm not sure that the red button system functions according to the reported figures. The plutonium fuel must also be changed every 10 years.
Thirdly, and this is the most disgusting and sad part, I don't believe in the ability to sacrifice oneself from someone who lets only his closest representatives and ministers come close to him, not the federation council. Whether this is out of a fear of Covid or invasion doesn't matter. If you're afraid of letting near those who you trust the most, how can you decide to destroy yourself and those you treasure included?
If you have questions, ask them. I won't be able to answer for a few days, we're in emergency mode, and the work only keeps piling up.
On the whole, our reports are fantastic while everything goes to fuck."